Page 10 - BeachBooklet_2020

In relation to oil, the demand for petrochemicals The ISP predicts higher levels of gas fired power
globally is expected to increase significantly in the generation in 2041-42 relative to 2021-22 levels in
next 20-30 years according to the 2018 International all modelled scenarios, including the most ambitious
Energy Agency World Energy Outlook . It is ‘step change’ scenario, which would see most coal
4
important to note that growth in renewable energy fired generation closed over this timeframe to achieve
generation is reliant on the petrochemical industry a 90% reduction in carbon emissions from power
in the construction of solar panels, wind turbines, generation by 2041-42.
batteries and electric vehicles.
Under this step change scenario, gas-fired generation
The IEA estimates that significant oil and gas increases 33% through to 2041-42, enabling
investment is needed to meet growing demand in renewables generation to increase by 285%. The ISP
all scenarios out to 2040. highlights the critical role gas is set to play in firming
variable renewable energy generation over the next
Furthermore, in 2018 the United Nations 20 years in the National Electricity Market.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
published a report called 2018: Global Warming of As a key supplier of domestic gas for Australia, Beach
1.5 degrees Celsius. In this report’s “P3 Scenario” is clearly aligned with the Australian Commonwealth
it showed a pathway in which primary energy from Government’s ambitions for natural gas in
natural gas increases by 33 percent by 2030 and reducing emissions without imposing new costs on
21 percent by 2050. households, while at the same time creating jobs,
growing businesses and the economy.
Aligned with Australia’s energy ambitions Australia’s chief scientist, Dr. Alan Finkel, has stated
In an Australian context, gas is used for residential, that there is a limit to how much solar and wind we
6
commercial, industrial and power generation. The can use and still retain a reliable system and therefore
Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) in its gas is an energy companion that can react rapidly to
2020 Gas Statement of Opportunities outlined changes in solar and wind output.
5
broadly flat demand for residential, commercial
and industrial consumption out to 2040 in Eastern In September 2020, Prime Minister Scott Morrison
Australia. With declining supply, it is pivotal that announced a plan to unlock further gas supply, invest
more investment occurs in existing and new fields to in new pipelines and fast-track interconnectors
meet this continued demand. between states, as part of a gas-fired recovery plan,
with an initial $52.9m allocated in the Federal Budget.
The Integrated System Plan (ISP), which models
electricity generation over the next 20 years in the As Beach continues to pursue growth in its natural
National Electricity Market (NEM), was updated in gas portfolio, it will be delivering on the Australian
August 2020 by AEMO. Commonwealth Government’s objectives for
reducing emissions while ensuring grid stability.

4 IEA (2018), The Future of Petrochemicals, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/ reports/the-future-of-petrochemicals
5 AEMO. “2020 Gas Statement of Opportunities.” March 2020
6 Finkel, A. “National Press Club Address: the orderly transition to an electric planet”. Canberra, ACT. 12 February 2020

AEMO 2020 Integrated System Plan – Step Change Scenario

2021-22 GWh Share 2041-42 GWh Share GWh Change % Change
COAL 128883 61.2% 6458 2.2% -122425 -95%
GAS 3253 1.5% 4338 1.5% 1085 33%
HYDRO 16429 7.8% 14884 5.1% -1545 -9%
STORAGE 793 0.4% 28090 9.7% 27297 3442%
RENEWABLES 61168 29.1% 235421 81.4% 174253 285%

TOTAL 210526 289191 78665 37%

10
Beach Energy Sustainability Report l October 2020